Is the Iraqi army stepping up to the plate? ISI/AQI leaders dropping like flies.

As the world focuses on the aftermath of post Iraqi election vote counting, re-counting and coalition maneuvering, meandering at a snail's pace, the deadline for US troop withdrawals set by President Obama looms. There is huge political and logistical momentum behind drawing down US troop levels in Iraq. President Obama has staked a good portion of his foreign policy legacy on leaving Iraq and "winning" in Afghanistan and the Pentagon has begun the biggest movement of military kit in history. Despite the massive inertia, the worst nightmare for the US is leaving Iraq prematurely only to see the country descend into anarchy or civil war once we're gone. Obviously a stable, non-sectarian and hopefully secular government is essential to the long term stability of Iraq, however, without the emergence of the American equipped, trained, and organized Iraqi Army as a capable fighting force, there is a virtual guarantee that the future of Iraq, and quite a few historical legacies, will be in shambles.

A fundamentalist is a fundamentalist, no matter their stripes

One of the most contentious arguments you can have with a fellow Zionist centers around the role, influence and prevalence of extreme right wing "hill-toppers" amongst the settler community and how to deal with the threat they pose to Israel. The classification of settlers and settlements is about as divisive as it gets and much of the nuance and differences is glossed over by international opinion, media and politicians in the treatment of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.The vast majority of Israeli "settlers" live in major, well defined settlement blocs that are widely recognized as areas that will be kept by Israel in any final status agreement with the Palestinians. They live in these settlements for a variety of reasons including cheap housing, government subsidies and religious/zionist beliefs. They are not breaking any Israeli laws (international law is more complicated) and will almost certainly never be asked to leave their homes. Outside of these blocs are both legal (again according to Israeli law) and illegal settlements. Most of these are populated by religious Zionists that are wholeheartedly against any concessions or evacuations. Increasingly they have been fighting evacuations and settlement freezes by the IDF as ordered by the Israeli government and courts by means of an organized resistance dubbed the "price tag," which calls for any attempt by the Israeli government and security services to be met with violent attacks on Palestinian property and civilians and perhaps most surprisingly, violence directed at the IDF who protects them.

The issue has come to a breaking point in my mind. I can no longer dismiss right wing radicals as a fringe element that whose behavior can be explained as isolated and swept under the rug. The threat posed by radical Jewish settlers is real and very worrisome. These elements believe their actions are sanctioned by religion and choose only to obey the rule of the state when it suits their interests. They have no qualms about using violence against Palestinian civilians, or Israeli security forces. They have openly called for a policy of retributive "price tags" to be inflicted upon Palestinian civilians in response to any Israeli policies that target their illegal activity. Their actions are not only illegal, but an ugly manipulation of Jewish ethics that is an embarrassment to me as a Jew.

Its been awhile...Lets re-start with a doozy...Peace in the Middle East!...or lack thereof.

I know. I know. It's been quite some time since I jumped onto my pulpit to bully my 1-3 readers. Been busy fashionista/farming. Anyway. A great read in Haaretz's Mess Report today that sheds a lot of light onto the perspective of average Israelis with regard to peace prospects. It is often hard for the average American/European to understand how Israelis can tolerate the uncertainty and world consternation about the lack of progress in the "Peace Process," but on the ground in Tel Aviv, it isn't registering in the same way.

McChrystle throws a spotlight onto our dark knights

The invasion of Afghanistan and toppling of the Taliban was led by historically few spooks and special operators. CIA field agents and small special operations units led a fierce and agressive local insurgency and continued the hunt for Al Qaeda in the mountains of Tora Bora. While our deployment and strategy in Afghanistan has changed over the years the emphasis on small Special Ops units has remained a major component throughout. Small units of Navy SEALS, Army Green Berets, and CIA teams have, with major air and artillery support assets, left a footprint far larger then their numbers would suggest.

Is that a good thing?

Today ISAF commander General Stanley McChrystle has announced that for the first time in our nation's proud and fiercely independent history of special operations, the Special Operations Command, based out of Ft. Bragg, will be brought under direct control of the general staff. Since the formation of the Army's Special Operations Command, American SOF (Special Operations Forces) have fought alongside, but independent of, the general Army command structure due to the highly classified and often "black" nature of their missions.

The massive deployment of SOF in Afghanistan had given an unprecedented leadership role to our "dark knights" and they produced initially spectacular results. However, as the war as become an insurgency, the overwhelming force favored by SOF units has become detrimental to our long term interests in Afghanistan. While effective in some missions, in Afghanistan, the preferred SOF force doctrine has led to increasingly worrisome "collateral damage" that is incongruent with the new "protect and hold" strategy McChrystle is attempting to implement.

I commend Gen. McChrystle for his admission of a problem, and perseverance in what was no doubt, a highly contentious internal decision. While uniquely versed and respected in the Special Operations World from his tenure as Joint Special Operations Commander in Iraq, reigning in our black knights was undoubtedly fought tooth and nail throughout the ranks of the US SOC and shows how committed Gen McChrystal is to winning this war.

Elections looming, jail rolls swell in Cairo and eyes turn in America

With recent elections in Iraq seemingly a success despite sporadic violence and reports of fraud, a stark contrast is seen brewing in Egypt, as Hosni Mubarak's ruling regime has undertaken a wide-scale crackdown on its most potent opposition party, The Muslim Brotherhood. The evolution of Egypt as one of the most stable US allies in the Middle East and "cold" peace partner with Israel has historically been guaranteed by the stability of the Mubarak regime. "President" Hosni Mubarak has ruled for over 30 years since the assassination of Anwar Sadat by Muslim extremists after he signed the 1979 Peace treaty with Israel. Mubarak has reigned over a period of stability and peace ever since. The military has blossomed into the backbone of the regime with a steady flow of US military aid and features modern battle platforms including MI Abrams tanks, F-15 and F-16 fighter bombers and the like.

And you thought I was crazy...Patreus hints at support for military actions among our Gulf Allies

Some of you may have read my post, Battle Cries in Saudi Arabia, and thought I was making some extreme postulations about the increasing indications of growing war footing in the Sunni Gulf States. I can't help but feel a bit vindicated by the March 7th Fareed Zakaria interview with CENTCOM Commander Gen. David Patreus. At about the 6 minute mark, Zakaria starts questioning Patreus about a transition to Containment in the Gulf...and General Patreus makes some very surprising and revealing comments about the positions of our Gulf Allies with regard to military solutions to the Iran problem.

Gates in the Gulf...Leaving Patriot's in lieu of failed sanctions

While V.P Biden's ME traveling circus in Israel and the West Bank have been stealing the headlines, Defense Secretary Gates has been on a public follow up tour of Sunni Gulf States to attempt to placate our allies after they quietly accepted US anti ballistic Patriot Missile batteries (and their accompanying US troops).

While the tour is ostensibly in concert with US efforts to secure a harsher round of sanctions on Iran, there are increasing signs that our Arab allies, who have a close view of Iran from across the gulf, are doubting the efficacy of diplomacy and preparing for military eventualities. This week's report that large muti-nationals including Shell will stop exporting refined gasoline to Iran (despite being a net exporter of oil, Iran's refining capabilities are so antiquated that they are forced to import and heavily subsidize gasoline) was lauded as a promising step for sanctions, however, the realities are far different.

Excuse us Mr. Biden as we throw some mud in your face.

This week has seen a series of ups, downs, left, rights and general confusion in the never ending saga that is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The week started on a high note as Palestinian negotiators accepted an Arab League endorsement for the resumption of indirect negotiations. After a long period of ceremonious standing and posturing between Bibi's coalition and the faltering Abbas government in the West Bank, there was finally a glimmer, however faint, of hope that the two sides could capitalize on a unilateral partial settlement building freeze to pursue peace.

Please wait while I measure your nose!

Sorry for the lack of recent posts. The day job caught up to me a bit. Working on some new posts now. In the meantime, I could not retrain myself from passing along this little tidbit.

In the aftermath of the al-Mabbouh assasination, the Dubai police have been working overtime to rehabilitate their image and reassert control over their jurisdiction. The authorities in Dubai have now reversed course as one of the few Muslim countries to allow in Israelis (although, only travelling on foriegn passports. No Israeli passports permitted). How will they discern which travellers are in fact Israelis in hiding? Don't worry. It turns out Dubai police chief Dahi Khalfan al-Tanim "knows an Israeli when he sees [or hears] one."

You know its a good idea when Hezbollah jumps on the bandwagon!

A modern day Commodore Perry on Chinese shores

The arrival of the flagship US super-carrier, the USS Nimitz in Hong Kong today has the unmistakable mark of the many show-of-force missions sent abroad since the days of Commodore Perry and his "black ships."  In the 1850's Commodore Perry's naval flotilla convinced the Imperial Japanese to open their shores to US trade and in recent times, whenever, our military/economic dominance is questioned, a US strike carrier group tends to show up on foreign shores to remind people what US power looks like in heavy metal.

Amid increasingly tenuous Sino-US relations, the arrival of the cream of the US military crop is clearly no coincidence.The Nimitz class super-carrier is the finest war machine ever created. Her deck measures as long as the Empire State Building is tall, she is capable of sailing without refueling her nuclear reactor for 20-30 years, and of carrying enough food, fuel and ammunition to fight for 3 months. The Nimitz class, carries up to 90 fixed wing jets and helicopters and is accompanied by an equally imposing carrier strike group of 9-12 destroyers, subs and cruisers. This is a tremendous, awe inspiring, display of power, even for the increasingly ambitious Chinese. Remember, they are still working on their first carrier of any sort.

Another "friendly" reminder from Uncle Sam, that although the Chinese have taken to showing off their burgeoning economic and military power, they are a long way off from confronting the incomparable US ability to project military power.

Battle cries in Saudi Arabia?

Speaking with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal publicly questioned the efficacy of economic sanctions as a time effective way to stop the Iranian Nuclear Program.

To understand the implications of this statement we must take a look back at the Saudis and their role as the main US ally in the ME. Until now, the Saudi's have kept a very quiet public front on the Iran issue, but behind the scenes, they hold quite a bit of sway over US policy as our closest ally in the Gulf. Historically, the US has guaranteed the security of the ruling al-Saud regime in return for their keeping the oil pumping. We have long based strategic assets in the kingdom and almost all major policy decisions in the ME are in turn, at the least, run by those that matter in the House of Saud.

Is the ISI coming around? Taliban # 2 nabbed

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the top ranking military comander of the Taliban has been captured in a joint CIA- ISI (Pakistani Intelligence Agency) raid in Karachi. The significance of this news cannot be understated. This is a big big deal on many levels.

First and foremost, Baradar is a high value target on par with Osama bin Laden. His value and influence as a commander, leader and inspiration to the rank and file Taliban is second only to Spiritual Leader Omar Mullah. He is probably the highest value target captured during our time in Afghanistan. The timing and coordination of the raid is also important. It comes during a period of increasingly worrying signs from Pakistan, that cooperation with US intelligence and military leaders was becoming strained. The Pakistanis have publicly voiced their opposition to US intelligence presence and drone strikes over the Pakistani-Afghan border and indicated that a final push into the NWFP (North West Frontier Province) was not on their agenda. Although, behind the scenes, their is ample evidence of cooperation, public opinion in Pakistan is vehemently anti American. An ongoing and public struggle between the military and civilian leadership over control of nuclear assets and military operations has tended to pander to popular opinion, causing significant concern in Washington.

A power surge in Helmand...but will the lights stay on?

The arc of US involvement in Afghanistan has been a wild ride. The initially spectacular success of the CIA and special forces, who led a local "insurgency" campaign to overthrow the Taliban regime and forces and scoured the Tora Bora region searching for Osama bin Laden are but a distant memory. Over the past few years, the "good war" in Afghanistan has been marred by the re-emergence of the Taliban, the destabilization and outright fraud of Hamid Karzai's government. Whispers of British and Russian failures in Afghanistan have grown into a rousing chorus predicting our impeding failure.


The current NATO led Operation Moshtarak in Helmand province centered around the towns of Marja and Nad Ali represent the first major "post surge" operation in Afghanistan. Obama's team including, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, CENTCOM commander General David Patreus and NATO commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, have all wagered their legacies (not to mention careers, lives of their soldiers, and billions in US taxpayer money) in a new definition of victory. The focus on securing, holding and extending government writ to Taliban strongholds instead of periodically "mowing the grass", a popular military term for periodic sweeps to kill Taliban forces, without holding territory. Operation Moshtarak is built around the promise to locals that after the territory is cleared, Afghan security forces will stay and create a security situation that will allow the extension of central control and development. 


I have no doubts in the ability of NATO forces to clear the Taliban, but I still am not sure what will be different about the illiterate, corrupt, ill trained Afghans that will remain behind. Can Hamid Karzai's government use this opportunity to rebuild, govern and extend stability beyond Kabul? The world can only hold their breath. The surge will only be a tremendous waste of resources if our allies in Kabul cannot keep the lights on after we are gone.

Russians on board? Sanctions and the S-300

In recent weeks it appears that the Russians will finally get on board with team Obama to back beefed up sanctions against Iran in the Security Council. However, we learn today that despite the slowly mounting Russian annoyance at Iran over its refusal to accept a deal sending uranium abroad for enrichment, they are still pursuing the delivery of S-300 missile systems to Iran.

The S-300 air defense system is one of the most modern air defense systems in the world. Deployed on a highly mobile truck platform that contributes to its survivability, the S-300 system can reportedly track 100 separate targets (ballistic and aircraft) from great distance and engage beyond the line of sight (up to 90 miles) with its 12 missile compliment. The S-300 systems would almost assuredly be deployed in defense of Iranian nuclear weapons sites and represent a drastic upgrade to the otherwise negligible Iranian anti aircraft and ballistic missile systems currently deployed.

Hezbullah, Iran and the IRA

My response to a very interesting article by Steven Simon and Jonathon Stevenson about the possibilities of disarming Hezbollah.

First of all, although the comparisons to the IRA are obviously limited, I think that the similarities are worth noting and the differences were clearly explained by Simon and Stevenson.

I definitely agree that due to the chances of, and danger of Obama getting burned by Hezbollah breaking a public deal, things should be kept back channel.

I am not really sure how the British expect to achieve much in Lebanon. Traditionally, the French due to their former imperial role in greater Syria and to their implicit protectorate over Lebanese Maronites, have long yielded a strong influence in Lebanon/Syria and I am surprised they are not mentioned as a potential role player.

The two main questions that come to mind for me are actually a bit connected

US troops on Muslim lands...by invitation

Barack Obama's honorable effort to engage the Iranian regime has unfortunately fallen on deaf/obstinate ears in Tehran. The Iranian regime has rebuffed all diplomatic and trust building attempts by Obama and the western world to find a negotiated resolution to the Iranian nuclear weapons crisis.

After a year of patiently waiting, Obama's team has clearly changed its tactics and has sent teams of ambassadors to rally support in Arab capitals for a new push for sanctions and pressure on the Iranian regime. The complicated and long history of the US-Israel-Sunni Gulf state cooperation is complicated by anti-US/Israel popular opinion in the Arab world and a lack of good options to confront Iran with force. However, the willingness of the Saudis, and Gulf states to accept US patriot batteries  (and the troops that run them) and increased US naval presence in the Gulf and back channel communications with Israel indicates the genuine fear aroused in the Sunni Arab world by the thought of an Iranian nuke.

While I applaud Obama's realization that our myriad Foreign Policy issues cannot be solved with speeches and respect alone, he is entering the dangerous waters of making threats that he might one day have to honor. I continue to believe that Iran cannot simply be appeased and allowed to develop nuclear weapons, the implications of waving big sticks is not something a US president should take lightly

Maybe it would have been better to stay home

Heads must be rolling at Hamas HQ in Damascus trying to find the asset that leaked Mahmoud al-Mabhouh's travel itinerary. al-Mabhouh's role in arms procurement from Iran and smuggling to the Gaza strip had made him a target before and he did not last the evening before some old friends paid him a visit at his hotel room.

10 agents on the ground with a quick strike plan is a reminder from the Mossad that its enemies should be careful before poking their heads out too far and does not bode well for those in charge of counter intelligence in Damascus. A big blow to Hamas both logistically and psychologically. 

Can Al Quada project CBRN capabilities?

What is the likliehood of a CBRN attack on Western soil? If Al Queda has the capabilities, why haven't they used them? We have passed these questions around a bunch in the past. I tend to agree that the idea that their are sleeper cells in the US with CBRN capabilities (or Europe for that matter) is highly unlikely, as the risk/reward of not using them is too high. I do not have any problem believing reports that Iranian Rev Guard elements in Europe are poised to strike at Western targets in the event of an attack on Iran, however, I beleive it would be in a more conventional fashion. There is no question that led by the US, international intelligence agencies have really been working hard to keep wraps on the most vile of CBRN agents. I tend to worry more about more unconventional threat possibilites such as releasing an ebola type biological agent developed domestically, or some other type of out of the box idea. In the end, to me, the take home message is that unlike countries such as North Korea and Iran, jihadists simply do not have the resources to fund or the secure territory from where they could organize a large scale centralized CBRN weapons program. 

Can Israel stand alone??

A response to a reader question:

This article states that Bin Laden has said he will stop trying to attack America when we stop supporting Israel. Obviously this would never happen, the Israel lobby is pretty strong and we clearly would never listen to the demands of a terrorist. It is also very unlikely that ceasing to support Israel would actually end up stopping attacks...but regardless, my question: at this point Israel has a pretty diesel military, with a technological advantage over almost every country in the middle east along with a nuclear deterrent. So, would Israel be able to defend itself and survive indefinitely on its own if the US (and for the sake of this discussion other western allies) withdrew their support?

I'll respond in three parts.

1) As far as I'm concerned, the Bin Laden statement is not worth much comment. The idea that Israel is their only grievance with the world and with the cessation of US support for Israel, the jihadists would retire to farming is ludicrous. Al Qaeda and it's off shoots are dedicated to the creation of a world wide Islamic Caliphate that extends far beyond the Levant.

2) While the Israel lobby is very strong, though far less so then conspiracy theorists would have you believe, it is not the only thing holding US-Israel ties together. There are the right wing Evangelical Christians who believe that a Jewish presence in Israel is necessary as a precursor to the second coming of Christ, the historical precedent of Israel as a bulwark of Democracy during the Cold War, Holocaust guilt, and lesser known agreement that the US can deploy from/through Israel and draw from Israeli fuel/ammo dumps in the case of a ME deployment.

3) As for if Israel could survive a reduction/cessation of American aid; the short answer, probably. long answer, no.

Spooks, Nucs and Sabotage

Who killed Masoud Alimohammadi? Was he a nuclear physicist seeking a cover for his activites in the protest movement or a non-nuclear physicist who found himself on the wrong side of the Iranian regime? In the end, in the grander scheme, he is but a bit part in the "great game" being played in and around the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What is more relevant is the story of ongoing Western intelligence operations of sabotage, assassinations and rabble rousing that shed light on the truth behind the Iranian nuclear program. The spooks are sure that the Iranians are trying to build Nuclear missiles, and convinced that diplomacy won't work and that politicians can't/won't up the pressure, Western intelligence agencies are left to do whatever they can to slow the progression to the red line. It is also worth noting the almost unheard of praise for Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad, in an Egyptian news paper for his efforts to undermine Iranian nuclear progress that underscores the unusual back door alliances forming in response to almost universal fear of the implications of an Iranian bomb. 

Protesting and nuclear bombast spewing from Tehran

An interesting piece in the Times today.


The "green" protests seem to have been contained with relative ease by the Basiji/security forces and never reached "critical mass." Are Ahmadinejad and Khameini revving up their nuclear rhetoric to deflect growing domestic unrest? It would certainly appear so. At the same time, however, they are giving a healthy and hearty 'Fuck You' to the West. Obama has been made to look foolish by this year's 'outstretched and unclenched fist' year of negotiations debacle, especially when his similar outreach to China has been thrown back in his face repeatedly (Chinese Premier's Wen Jiabo's refusal to meet with Obama in Copenhagen, and his replacement by a mid-level official, is particularly embarrasing). When first announced, I was in favor of giving Obama's method a chance. No question Bush's "with us or against us" policy created difficulties with our Western allies. At this point, however, it's hard for me to see the US as anything more then appeasers of Iran's complete disregard for the concerns of the West.

Uncle Sam stares the Dragon in the eyes...Who blinked?

Some great articles in this week's Economist and today's NY Times. I think, in general, the reaction (or more accurately, overreaction) to the Taiwanese arms sales is less worrisome then the continued diplomatic obstinacy and posturing by the Chinese within "G2" relations and on the global scene. I tend to think that a Chinese-US military conflict is much too dangerous a thought for either side, whether over Taiwan or anything else, to consider it a true strategic risk (though we will continue to prepare for this contingency). In the end, getting China to act as a responsible emerging superpower in all manners of international issues, from Iran/Darfur sanctions to pressure on N Korea to international peacekeeping etc., is what will define the next generation.

Good News From Pakistan?

Any chance we get for Generals and High Level diplomats from the US, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to work together is good for everything we are trying to achieve. One can't help to be skeptical, however, about how much of a stabilizing actor Pakistan will ever actually play in the region.