A modern day Commodore Perry on Chinese shores

The arrival of the flagship US super-carrier, the USS Nimitz in Hong Kong today has the unmistakable mark of the many show-of-force missions sent abroad since the days of Commodore Perry and his "black ships."  In the 1850's Commodore Perry's naval flotilla convinced the Imperial Japanese to open their shores to US trade and in recent times, whenever, our military/economic dominance is questioned, a US strike carrier group tends to show up on foreign shores to remind people what US power looks like in heavy metal.

Amid increasingly tenuous Sino-US relations, the arrival of the cream of the US military crop is clearly no coincidence.The Nimitz class super-carrier is the finest war machine ever created. Her deck measures as long as the Empire State Building is tall, she is capable of sailing without refueling her nuclear reactor for 20-30 years, and of carrying enough food, fuel and ammunition to fight for 3 months. The Nimitz class, carries up to 90 fixed wing jets and helicopters and is accompanied by an equally imposing carrier strike group of 9-12 destroyers, subs and cruisers. This is a tremendous, awe inspiring, display of power, even for the increasingly ambitious Chinese. Remember, they are still working on their first carrier of any sort.

Another "friendly" reminder from Uncle Sam, that although the Chinese have taken to showing off their burgeoning economic and military power, they are a long way off from confronting the incomparable US ability to project military power.

Battle cries in Saudi Arabia?

Speaking with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal publicly questioned the efficacy of economic sanctions as a time effective way to stop the Iranian Nuclear Program.

To understand the implications of this statement we must take a look back at the Saudis and their role as the main US ally in the ME. Until now, the Saudi's have kept a very quiet public front on the Iran issue, but behind the scenes, they hold quite a bit of sway over US policy as our closest ally in the Gulf. Historically, the US has guaranteed the security of the ruling al-Saud regime in return for their keeping the oil pumping. We have long based strategic assets in the kingdom and almost all major policy decisions in the ME are in turn, at the least, run by those that matter in the House of Saud.

Is the ISI coming around? Taliban # 2 nabbed

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the top ranking military comander of the Taliban has been captured in a joint CIA- ISI (Pakistani Intelligence Agency) raid in Karachi. The significance of this news cannot be understated. This is a big big deal on many levels.

First and foremost, Baradar is a high value target on par with Osama bin Laden. His value and influence as a commander, leader and inspiration to the rank and file Taliban is second only to Spiritual Leader Omar Mullah. He is probably the highest value target captured during our time in Afghanistan. The timing and coordination of the raid is also important. It comes during a period of increasingly worrying signs from Pakistan, that cooperation with US intelligence and military leaders was becoming strained. The Pakistanis have publicly voiced their opposition to US intelligence presence and drone strikes over the Pakistani-Afghan border and indicated that a final push into the NWFP (North West Frontier Province) was not on their agenda. Although, behind the scenes, their is ample evidence of cooperation, public opinion in Pakistan is vehemently anti American. An ongoing and public struggle between the military and civilian leadership over control of nuclear assets and military operations has tended to pander to popular opinion, causing significant concern in Washington.

A power surge in Helmand...but will the lights stay on?

The arc of US involvement in Afghanistan has been a wild ride. The initially spectacular success of the CIA and special forces, who led a local "insurgency" campaign to overthrow the Taliban regime and forces and scoured the Tora Bora region searching for Osama bin Laden are but a distant memory. Over the past few years, the "good war" in Afghanistan has been marred by the re-emergence of the Taliban, the destabilization and outright fraud of Hamid Karzai's government. Whispers of British and Russian failures in Afghanistan have grown into a rousing chorus predicting our impeding failure.


The current NATO led Operation Moshtarak in Helmand province centered around the towns of Marja and Nad Ali represent the first major "post surge" operation in Afghanistan. Obama's team including, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, CENTCOM commander General David Patreus and NATO commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, have all wagered their legacies (not to mention careers, lives of their soldiers, and billions in US taxpayer money) in a new definition of victory. The focus on securing, holding and extending government writ to Taliban strongholds instead of periodically "mowing the grass", a popular military term for periodic sweeps to kill Taliban forces, without holding territory. Operation Moshtarak is built around the promise to locals that after the territory is cleared, Afghan security forces will stay and create a security situation that will allow the extension of central control and development. 


I have no doubts in the ability of NATO forces to clear the Taliban, but I still am not sure what will be different about the illiterate, corrupt, ill trained Afghans that will remain behind. Can Hamid Karzai's government use this opportunity to rebuild, govern and extend stability beyond Kabul? The world can only hold their breath. The surge will only be a tremendous waste of resources if our allies in Kabul cannot keep the lights on after we are gone.

Russians on board? Sanctions and the S-300

In recent weeks it appears that the Russians will finally get on board with team Obama to back beefed up sanctions against Iran in the Security Council. However, we learn today that despite the slowly mounting Russian annoyance at Iran over its refusal to accept a deal sending uranium abroad for enrichment, they are still pursuing the delivery of S-300 missile systems to Iran.

The S-300 air defense system is one of the most modern air defense systems in the world. Deployed on a highly mobile truck platform that contributes to its survivability, the S-300 system can reportedly track 100 separate targets (ballistic and aircraft) from great distance and engage beyond the line of sight (up to 90 miles) with its 12 missile compliment. The S-300 systems would almost assuredly be deployed in defense of Iranian nuclear weapons sites and represent a drastic upgrade to the otherwise negligible Iranian anti aircraft and ballistic missile systems currently deployed.

Hezbullah, Iran and the IRA

My response to a very interesting article by Steven Simon and Jonathon Stevenson about the possibilities of disarming Hezbollah.

First of all, although the comparisons to the IRA are obviously limited, I think that the similarities are worth noting and the differences were clearly explained by Simon and Stevenson.

I definitely agree that due to the chances of, and danger of Obama getting burned by Hezbollah breaking a public deal, things should be kept back channel.

I am not really sure how the British expect to achieve much in Lebanon. Traditionally, the French due to their former imperial role in greater Syria and to their implicit protectorate over Lebanese Maronites, have long yielded a strong influence in Lebanon/Syria and I am surprised they are not mentioned as a potential role player.

The two main questions that come to mind for me are actually a bit connected

US troops on Muslim lands...by invitation

Barack Obama's honorable effort to engage the Iranian regime has unfortunately fallen on deaf/obstinate ears in Tehran. The Iranian regime has rebuffed all diplomatic and trust building attempts by Obama and the western world to find a negotiated resolution to the Iranian nuclear weapons crisis.

After a year of patiently waiting, Obama's team has clearly changed its tactics and has sent teams of ambassadors to rally support in Arab capitals for a new push for sanctions and pressure on the Iranian regime. The complicated and long history of the US-Israel-Sunni Gulf state cooperation is complicated by anti-US/Israel popular opinion in the Arab world and a lack of good options to confront Iran with force. However, the willingness of the Saudis, and Gulf states to accept US patriot batteries  (and the troops that run them) and increased US naval presence in the Gulf and back channel communications with Israel indicates the genuine fear aroused in the Sunni Arab world by the thought of an Iranian nuke.

While I applaud Obama's realization that our myriad Foreign Policy issues cannot be solved with speeches and respect alone, he is entering the dangerous waters of making threats that he might one day have to honor. I continue to believe that Iran cannot simply be appeased and allowed to develop nuclear weapons, the implications of waving big sticks is not something a US president should take lightly

Maybe it would have been better to stay home

Heads must be rolling at Hamas HQ in Damascus trying to find the asset that leaked Mahmoud al-Mabhouh's travel itinerary. al-Mabhouh's role in arms procurement from Iran and smuggling to the Gaza strip had made him a target before and he did not last the evening before some old friends paid him a visit at his hotel room.

10 agents on the ground with a quick strike plan is a reminder from the Mossad that its enemies should be careful before poking their heads out too far and does not bode well for those in charge of counter intelligence in Damascus. A big blow to Hamas both logistically and psychologically.