Can Al Quada project CBRN capabilities?

What is the likliehood of a CBRN attack on Western soil? If Al Queda has the capabilities, why haven't they used them? We have passed these questions around a bunch in the past. I tend to agree that the idea that their are sleeper cells in the US with CBRN capabilities (or Europe for that matter) is highly unlikely, as the risk/reward of not using them is too high. I do not have any problem believing reports that Iranian Rev Guard elements in Europe are poised to strike at Western targets in the event of an attack on Iran, however, I beleive it would be in a more conventional fashion. There is no question that led by the US, international intelligence agencies have really been working hard to keep wraps on the most vile of CBRN agents. I tend to worry more about more unconventional threat possibilites such as releasing an ebola type biological agent developed domestically, or some other type of out of the box idea. In the end, to me, the take home message is that unlike countries such as North Korea and Iran, jihadists simply do not have the resources to fund or the secure territory from where they could organize a large scale centralized CBRN weapons program. 

Can Israel stand alone??

A response to a reader question:

This article states that Bin Laden has said he will stop trying to attack America when we stop supporting Israel. Obviously this would never happen, the Israel lobby is pretty strong and we clearly would never listen to the demands of a terrorist. It is also very unlikely that ceasing to support Israel would actually end up stopping attacks...but regardless, my question: at this point Israel has a pretty diesel military, with a technological advantage over almost every country in the middle east along with a nuclear deterrent. So, would Israel be able to defend itself and survive indefinitely on its own if the US (and for the sake of this discussion other western allies) withdrew their support?

I'll respond in three parts.

1) As far as I'm concerned, the Bin Laden statement is not worth much comment. The idea that Israel is their only grievance with the world and with the cessation of US support for Israel, the jihadists would retire to farming is ludicrous. Al Qaeda and it's off shoots are dedicated to the creation of a world wide Islamic Caliphate that extends far beyond the Levant.

2) While the Israel lobby is very strong, though far less so then conspiracy theorists would have you believe, it is not the only thing holding US-Israel ties together. There are the right wing Evangelical Christians who believe that a Jewish presence in Israel is necessary as a precursor to the second coming of Christ, the historical precedent of Israel as a bulwark of Democracy during the Cold War, Holocaust guilt, and lesser known agreement that the US can deploy from/through Israel and draw from Israeli fuel/ammo dumps in the case of a ME deployment.

3) As for if Israel could survive a reduction/cessation of American aid; the short answer, probably. long answer, no.

Spooks, Nucs and Sabotage

Who killed Masoud Alimohammadi? Was he a nuclear physicist seeking a cover for his activites in the protest movement or a non-nuclear physicist who found himself on the wrong side of the Iranian regime? In the end, in the grander scheme, he is but a bit part in the "great game" being played in and around the Iranian nuclear weapons program. What is more relevant is the story of ongoing Western intelligence operations of sabotage, assassinations and rabble rousing that shed light on the truth behind the Iranian nuclear program. The spooks are sure that the Iranians are trying to build Nuclear missiles, and convinced that diplomacy won't work and that politicians can't/won't up the pressure, Western intelligence agencies are left to do whatever they can to slow the progression to the red line. It is also worth noting the almost unheard of praise for Meir Dagan, head of the Mossad, in an Egyptian news paper for his efforts to undermine Iranian nuclear progress that underscores the unusual back door alliances forming in response to almost universal fear of the implications of an Iranian bomb. 

Protesting and nuclear bombast spewing from Tehran

An interesting piece in the Times today.


The "green" protests seem to have been contained with relative ease by the Basiji/security forces and never reached "critical mass." Are Ahmadinejad and Khameini revving up their nuclear rhetoric to deflect growing domestic unrest? It would certainly appear so. At the same time, however, they are giving a healthy and hearty 'Fuck You' to the West. Obama has been made to look foolish by this year's 'outstretched and unclenched fist' year of negotiations debacle, especially when his similar outreach to China has been thrown back in his face repeatedly (Chinese Premier's Wen Jiabo's refusal to meet with Obama in Copenhagen, and his replacement by a mid-level official, is particularly embarrasing). When first announced, I was in favor of giving Obama's method a chance. No question Bush's "with us or against us" policy created difficulties with our Western allies. At this point, however, it's hard for me to see the US as anything more then appeasers of Iran's complete disregard for the concerns of the West.

Uncle Sam stares the Dragon in the eyes...Who blinked?

Some great articles in this week's Economist and today's NY Times. I think, in general, the reaction (or more accurately, overreaction) to the Taiwanese arms sales is less worrisome then the continued diplomatic obstinacy and posturing by the Chinese within "G2" relations and on the global scene. I tend to think that a Chinese-US military conflict is much too dangerous a thought for either side, whether over Taiwan or anything else, to consider it a true strategic risk (though we will continue to prepare for this contingency). In the end, getting China to act as a responsible emerging superpower in all manners of international issues, from Iran/Darfur sanctions to pressure on N Korea to international peacekeeping etc., is what will define the next generation.

Good News From Pakistan?

Any chance we get for Generals and High Level diplomats from the US, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to work together is good for everything we are trying to achieve. One can't help to be skeptical, however, about how much of a stabilizing actor Pakistan will ever actually play in the region.