What is the likliehood of a CBRN attack on Western soil? If Al Queda has the capabilities, why haven't they used them? We have passed these questions around a bunch in the past. I tend to agree that the idea that their are sleeper cells in the US with CBRN capabilities (or Europe for that matter) is highly unlikely, as the risk/reward of not using them is too high. I do not have any problem believing reports that Iranian Rev Guard elements in Europe are poised to strike at Western targets in the event of an attack on Iran, however, I beleive it would be in a more conventional fashion. There is no question that led by the US, international intelligence agencies have really been working hard to keep wraps on the most vile of CBRN agents. I tend to worry more about more unconventional threat possibilites such as releasing an ebola type biological agent developed domestically, or some other type of out of the box idea. In the end, to me, the take home message is that unlike countries such as North Korea and Iran, jihadists simply do not have the resources to fund or the secure territory from where they could organize a large scale centralized CBRN weapons program.
One can easily argue that our adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan created power vacuums that allowed for terrorist networks to grow and operate. However, our persistnece and ability to modify our tactics to the wars we are now fighting have the central leadership of Al Queda on the run. While there is no question that Al Queda inspired offshoots abound, our efforts have made large scale attacks far more difficult to plan and execute. We have broadened our anti terror operations to the ungoverned Pakistani and Yemeni tribal areas as well as anit-piracy operations that are aimed at not onlt protecting shipping, but also to help stabalize states on the Gulf of Aden. We simply have no other choice other then to continue to eliminate terrorist safe haven and training grounds one by one as they sprout up to keep the leadership of Al Queda decentralized and on the run.
One can easily argue that our adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan created power vacuums that allowed for terrorist networks to grow and operate. However, our persistnece and ability to modify our tactics to the wars we are now fighting have the central leadership of Al Queda on the run. While there is no question that Al Queda inspired offshoots abound, our efforts have made large scale attacks far more difficult to plan and execute. We have broadened our anti terror operations to the ungoverned Pakistani and Yemeni tribal areas as well as anit-piracy operations that are aimed at not onlt protecting shipping, but also to help stabalize states on the Gulf of Aden. We simply have no other choice other then to continue to eliminate terrorist safe haven and training grounds one by one as they sprout up to keep the leadership of Al Queda decentralized and on the run.
No comments:
Post a Comment