Battle cries in Saudi Arabia?

Speaking with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal publicly questioned the efficacy of economic sanctions as a time effective way to stop the Iranian Nuclear Program.

To understand the implications of this statement we must take a look back at the Saudis and their role as the main US ally in the ME. Until now, the Saudi's have kept a very quiet public front on the Iran issue, but behind the scenes, they hold quite a bit of sway over US policy as our closest ally in the Gulf. Historically, the US has guaranteed the security of the ruling al-Saud regime in return for their keeping the oil pumping. We have long based strategic assets in the kingdom and almost all major policy decisions in the ME are in turn, at the least, run by those that matter in the House of Saud.


In recent years, however, the relationship has begun to show signs of strain. During Desert Storm, the Saudi's opened their northern deserts into what would become the largest military staging ground in history. The massive US (and allied) presence caused significant backlash within the country and is widely contributed to be a major early factor in the radicalization of Osama bin Laden and the creation of Al Qaeda. In the ensuring years, US backed failures of the Oslo and Camp David Peace Accords, the ensuing Intifadah, 2nd Lebanon War, the recent war in Gaza, and of course the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the stress has continued to grow. The Saudi's, while continuing to privately work with the US diplomatically and militarily, have had to alter their public stance to assuage growing domestic uneasiness with the US-Saudi relationship. This has been most prominently demonstrated by their outright refusal to increase oil output during the price spikes of the early decade despite unabashed US requests (privately, many believe that Saudi oil production is at or beyond peak capacity and they are truly unable to produce any more then current levels for any sustainable period of time).

This public questioning by Prince al Faisal of the sanctions policy being pursued vigorously by Sec. of State Clinton on a whirlwind gulf tour, sheds light onto the true levels of Saudi fears. Behind the scenes, the Saudi's have been at the head of the Sunni Gulf State line for US anti-ballistic and nuclear umbrella protection from an increasingly threatening Iran. They fear an Iranian bomb perhaps more then anyone outside of Israel. Their fears are not of annihilation (like the Israelis), but of an increasingly bombastic and influential Shiia counter balance to the traditional Sunni Arab influence long enjoyed by the Saudis. If the Saudis do not believe that sanctions are going to act quickly enough to stem the threat, then what do they propose? So far nothing, but if the Sunni Arab's get behind military or direct economic pressure on Iran, we are going to be in for some surprises. As their recent military adventures against Iranian back rebels in Yemen show, the Saudi's patience with Iranian encroachment is wearing thin. While, most people expect Israel is most likely to attack Iran,  if the Saudis are scared, feel cornered, abandoned by the West and pressured to act, we could find ourselves drawn in closely on their (well trained and armed-thanks to Uncle Sam) heels...