Elections looming, jail rolls swell in Cairo and eyes turn in America

With recent elections in Iraq seemingly a success despite sporadic violence and reports of fraud, a stark contrast is seen brewing in Egypt, as Hosni Mubarak's ruling regime has undertaken a wide-scale crackdown on its most potent opposition party, The Muslim Brotherhood. The evolution of Egypt as one of the most stable US allies in the Middle East and "cold" peace partner with Israel has historically been guaranteed by the stability of the Mubarak regime. "President" Hosni Mubarak has ruled for over 30 years since the assassination of Anwar Sadat by Muslim extremists after he signed the 1979 Peace treaty with Israel. Mubarak has reigned over a period of stability and peace ever since. The military has blossomed into the backbone of the regime with a steady flow of US military aid and features modern battle platforms including MI Abrams tanks, F-15 and F-16 fighter bombers and the like.

Domestically, Mubarak has consolidated his control with absolute authority over the Army and government and severe restriction of opposition and minority groups despite intermittent protests from Washington. As the most visible and potent alternative to Mubarak's regime, the Muslim Brotherhood attracts the focused attention of Mubarak's thugs. The brotherhood was originally a radical and militant Islamist organization calling for an Islamic Caliphate in Egypt, and spawning extremists like Al Queda's Ayman al-Zawahiri and organizations such as Hamas. However, in more recent years, at least the Egypt branch (it has offshoots in many other Arab countries that are alternately repressed or moderately tolerated) has officially renounced violence and dedicated itself officially to the political process. This has hardly relieved pressure from Egyptian security services and is increasingly worrisome given Mubarak's advance age, declining health, unclear succession plans and rising domestic unrest.

As in many Arab autocracies, stability and democracy seem increasingly at odds. Experiments with democracy have gone from rocky in Iraq to downright disastrous in Afghanistan, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.   These "experiments" have led to the election of Islamists, and frauds. The Arab dictators have watched these developments with horror. Even small liberalizations and expansion of elections in Egypt, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia have been quickly and adamantly reversed and the ability of the west to justify democratization in the Middle East has at least taken a huge credibility hit and at worst become incongruent with stability.

The risk of democratization has been fully elucidated; the re-orientation of stable (if undemocratic) regimes towards Islamicized, radical and unpredictable governments. Egypt and Pakistan loom as particularly dangerous cases. We have poured so much money into the modernization of their militaries (some of which was rerouted to the nuclear weapons program in Pakistan) that if they were to fall into the hands of unfriendly hands, could result in the destabilization of the Middle East and in hand the entire world. This is everyone's worst nightmare. So despite grandiose speeches  and legitimate concerns about the long term effects of propping up ME dictators, in the short term expect the US response to crack-downs in Egypt, succession and liberalization questions in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states,  and military autonomy from civilian oversight in Pakistan to be muted. Considering our precariously overstretched force projections in the ME, short term stability will trump the ideals of democratization and freedom.