"
Wouldn't it be possible to contain it?ZAKARIA: Don't you have the beginning of a very robust containment strategy, though, and you would be the one actually who would probably be principally charged with the military operationalization of this. You have the moderate -- the Gulf states, the Sunni states, Egypt, Israel, the major European countries, perhaps even Russia, all arrayed, you know, along this common interest that Iran not -- not become a nuclear power.
PETRAEUS: ...you have to ask a country that is most directly concerned about this, and that would be Israel. And, at the end of the day, what we might want with a slightly detached perspective than the other western countries. What the Gulf states and others might be willing to accept --
And by -- by the way, there is no uniform or universal acceptance of what you had just laid out. In fact, it's quite the contrary in many of the countries, and there's quite a --
...
ZAKARIA: What does that mean? They want -- they want the United States to strike?
PETRAEUS: Well, it's interesting. I think there -- there is almost a slight degree of bipolarity there at times. On the one hand, there are countries that would like to see a strike, us or perhaps Israel, even. And then there's the worry that someone will strike, and then there's also the worry that someone will not strike. And, again, reconciling that is -- is one of the challenges of operating in the region right now." ~ http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2466204/posts
What is clear from this excerpt is how scared the Gulf States really are, and how under-reported their support for military contingencies is in the Western press. It is difficult to go more then a day or two without reading about Israeli or American politicians saying "all options remain on the table," but it is the Sunni Arab states, who see the Iranian's power play up close and personal, who might be most in favor of the military option. Remember the status quo in the ME for many years was to allow Iraq and Iran to fight each other into mutually impotent states. The removal of Iraq as a counterweight to an increasingly belligerent Shiia Iran has the Gulf States in a very nervous position that is closer to the Israeli point of view then most Westerners care to admit.
Posts
I don't see any evidence from Petraeus' comments that Gulf States are explicitly afraid of a nuclear Iranian state. He specifically comments on the bipolarity of opinions, and the only countries he cites as wanting to possibly see a strike are the US and Israel. Is there any evidence of Saudi Arabia or Iraq or any of the Emirates being proponents of force against Iran, or feeling directly threatened? I guess a 10 year war with no/little gains for either side demonstrated that Iran and Iraq both feel threatened by each other, but this is nothing new.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I'm curious to see how 'containment' of Iran would be applied. I don't think you can, in international relations, separate the term 'containment' from Kennan, and I don't think Iran is 'spreading', as Communism was when the term was conceived and implemented. If you're just applying containment strategies--military, diplomatic, economic--without actually trying to halt the spread of anything, it sounds a lot like . . . sanctions. And we've all seen how much that has accomplished.
Thanks for the comment Mr H! You should watch the video. It is tough to get the context from the excerpt. The prevailing fears in the Sunni Arab states of the rising influence of an increasingly belligerent Shiia Iran going nuclear in the is well documented. Just google the topic and you will find a bevy of sources. There are even rumors of secret military contacts between Saudi Arabia and Israel about the Iran threat.
ReplyDeleteThe balance of power in the Middle East between traditional Sunni powers and Shiia Iran is widely viewed as a "Zero sum equation," and extends beyond overt "threats" to political and RELIGIOUS influence. The increasing export of Iranian influence is a direct threat to the influence particularly of the Saudis.
Evidence of Gulf States and Saudi Arabia supporting military force is less overt as it is between the lines. See my earlier post, http://thelinkblitz.blogspot.com/2010/02/battle-cries-in-saudi-arabia.html. In this follow up article about the Zakaria interview, the point of interest is Petraeus refuting Zakaria's presumption that the Arabs are unified against the use of force.
I think "containing" Iran will be very difficult once they have achieved a nuclear deterrent. Even with two strike carrier groups in the Gulf, 200,000 troops in theater and huge air assets, the Iranians have coldly called our bluffs. A nuclear armed Iran would have even less reason to believe that the world is willing to stand up to them.