I know. I know. It's been quite some time since I jumped onto my pulpit to bully my 1-3 readers. Been busy fashionista/farming. Anyway. A great read in Haaretz's Mess Report today that sheds a lot of light onto the perspective of average Israelis with regard to peace prospects. It is often hard for the average American/European to understand how Israelis can tolerate the uncertainty and world consternation about the lack of progress in the "Peace Process," but on the ground in Tel Aviv, it isn't registering in the same way.
From the Israeli perspective things just aren't that bad (at least historically) and the risk/reward of making concessions to Palestinians, much less Syrians, seems about as risky as a CDO of sub prime mortgages. When considered against the historical backdrop of 4-5 major wars (depending on how you classify the War of Attrition vs. Egypt 1967-1970) with major Arab states backed by Soviet political/military support, the security of Israel is no longer really at risk from conventional war. The Iranian nuclear weapons program causes such an uproar in Israel because it is the first existential threat that upsets the very calm created by 5 decades of successful Israeli deterrence and presents no clear (or palatable) military or diplomatic resolution.
In comparison to the Arab threat of yesteryear, and the current Iranian threat, the low scale guerrilla "wars" periodically prosecuted to curb Hamas and Hezbollah menace don't really cause Israelis much daily consternation. The West Bank threat has been so completely thwarted by the success of the security fence, PA security training and IDF, PA cooperation that there is virtually no impetus to force peace with what is viewed, in Israel, as a partner incapable of delivering real peace. Israeli experience in the Middle East has informed the consensus opinion that deterrence keeps the peace and concessions, especially from positions of strength, bring "rewards" in the form of terrorism and missiles. Despite the international uproar about recent operations in Gaza and Southern Lebanon, and the undeniable inability of the IDF to deliver a knockout blow, deterrence has been re-established. Missiles and mortar fire from Hezbollah and Hamas have almost completely ceased and terrorism and there has not been a successful terrorist attack inside the green line in years.
While foreigners wring their hands over daily news reports, Israelis see the strong economy, quiet and safe streets and rehabbing IDF and are generally content to keep the status quo. While there are increasingly worrying signs (as usual) of renewed hostilities this summer, they remain non-existential, and no amount of US pressure will convince Netanyahu to force feed peace to a constituency that does not seem to care for it...
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While it may be true that Israeli's today do not feel the same daily threat level that their predecessors did, to say that they don't necessarily want peace is questionable. Obviously, there are some who are against conceding much of anything to broker a peace agreement that may or may not be honored by some of the more militant groups that are committed to violence against Israel. But in my experiences in speaking with Israelis (while it may pale in comparison to your Israeli exposure), I have found that they desperately want peace. Going so far as to be willing to give up the house and land that they grew up on and have raised their families on in land exchanges. They don't feel this way because they wake up every morning in fear of a missile landing on their homes (though it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility), but they acknowledge that a peace agreement is easily the best way to ensure the long term security of Israel and its citizens. Israel has done remarkably well with a strategy of deterrence for decades. While it may be sustainable for many years down the line, it should not be relied upon in place of making every effort to strike a peace agreement.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't commenting on whether Israelis "desired" peace or not. Polls show that they overwhelmingly do. However, wanting peace and believing that it can happen are completely different. I was trying to help understand the Israeli mentality. People want peace, but not if the "partner" cannot deliver in kind. Attempted deals with weakened PA/PLO leaders have fallen through before, and Abbas is in a weaker position then any of his predecessors, or even himself in years past. Unilateral maneuvers have not proven to contribute to long term peace prospects or day to day security. The only thing that has proven itself successful over time is deterrence, despite how it is viewed internationally. So while there is no doubt that Israelis want peace (overwhelmingly) they do not view the lack of a deal, especially when they do not believe they have a "partner" who can deliver the other side, the same way that outsiders do. While Americans fret over how the lack of a deal is adversely effecting our international standing, Israelis see their situation as better then in the past and while they desire long term peace, they are not in the same rush as the rest of us.
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